Understanding Global Eligibility for GLP-1 Therapies: Implications and Opportunities

More than a quarter of the world's adults meet common eligibility criteria for GLP‑1 receptor agonist weight‑management therapy, according to a global analysis. This large eligible population has immediate implications for demand forecasting and health‑system resource planning.

A pooled analysis of 810,635 adults from 99 countries applied common eligibility thresholds—BMI >30, or BMI >27 with hypertension and/or diabetes—and estimated roughly 27% of adults qualified. Eligibility concentrated among women, older adults, and populations in low‑ and middle‑income countries, underscoring a substantial population‑level need for scalable treatment pathways.

That projected eligible population will strain drug supply, clinic capacity, and payer budgets globally. Health systems can expect increased clinic visits for initiation and monitoring, higher procurement demand for GLP‑1 agents, and intensified reimbursement negotiations.

If demand outstrips supply, pragmatic prioritization may include triage by cardiometabolic risk, focusing on patients with multiple obesity‑related comorbidities, and applying structured shared‑decision frameworks to allocate limited courses. Evidence on differential pharmacologic responses across ethnic groups is limited and inconsistent, so subgroup efficacy interpretations should remain cautious. Any prioritization strategy must balance efficacy, equity, and feasibility.

Routine surveillance and real‑world outcome tracking will be essential to monitor effectiveness, safety, and equitable access as GLP‑1 therapies scale. Immediate next steps for clinicians and policymakers include establishing outcome registries and equity metrics to guide implementation and policy decisions.

Key Takeaways:

• A large pooled global estimate demonstrates that ~27% of adults meet common eligibility criteria for GLP‑1 weight‑management therapy.
• Women, older adults, and populations in low‑ and middle‑income countries account for disproportionate eligibility and elevated demand.
• Health systems should prepare for increased drug procurement, expanded clinic capacity needs, and implement prioritization frameworks when supply is constrained.