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The research investigates how counterfactual thinking influences predictions about COVID-19 death tolls, revealing that such thinking exacerbates judgmental bias. The study, conducted by Matthias Seifert and Jeeva Somasundaram, involved 6,731 daily forecasts over a year. It found that individuals prompted to consider alternative outcomes to the COVID-19 crisis demonstrated greater bias, often underestimating the death tolls. These biases affect not only judgments but also public health communications. Employing strategies to mitigate such cognitive biases could improve the effectiveness of crisis communications.
Counterfactual thinking can lead to significant biases in judgment and decision-making.
Counterfactual thinking involves imagining alternative outcomes to events, which can heavily bias predictions and judgments in crisis scenarios.
Understanding how this cognitive process works can help in designing better communication strategies.
If counterfactual thinking can bias decision-making, then minimizing its effects can improve judgment accuracy.
Counterfactual thinking involves constructing mental alternatives to reality, influencing how individuals perceive and predict future events. Such thinking, though sometimes beneficial for learning and adaptation, can introduce substantial biases.
According to Matthias Seifert, "Counterfactual thinking prompts individuals to anchor on past interventions, affecting their judgment about future outcomes."
This cognitive bias can lead individuals to underestimate negative outcomes, particularly in unpredictable scenarios like a pandemic, necessitating attention in public health messaging.
In crisis communication, neutral information dissemination is crucial to avoid triggering biases.
The study demonstrated that individuals prompted with counterfactual scenarios showed increased bias in predicting COVID-19 death tolls.
Such biases can lead to flawed decisions and ineffective crisis management.
When exposed to counterfactual stimuli, participants showed greater bias, indicating a causal link between the cognitive process and judgment error.
The research involved a substantial sample size, analyzing daily predictions from over 6,000 individuals across 377 days. This extensive data showed a clear pattern: those considering 'what if' scenarios before making predictions tended to underestimate the severity of the COVID-19 crisis.
This underestimation is linked to a tendency to imagine more favorable scenarios, leading to an optimistic bias that ignores real-time data. Such a bias can be detrimental during a health crisis where accurate data interpretation is vital for timely decision-making.
Incorporate strategies to debias public health communication to enhance accuracy and effectiveness.
Public health communications must be crafted carefully to avoid cognitive biases like counterfactual thinking.
Such communications can influence public behavior and perceptions critically during health crises.
Just as clear communication can debias judgment, muddled messaging can exacerbate biases, affecting public response.
The findings emphasize the importance of debiasing strategies in public health communications. Misleading scenarios and unclear information can lead to public misperception, affecting the overall effectiveness of crisis management.
Jeeva Somasundaram noted, "Neutral and clear communication can mitigate the risk of judgmental biases, crucial during a health crisis."
Public health officials should consider these findings when crafting messages, ensuring they are clear, fact-based, and devoid of potential bias triggers to maintain public trust and adherence to health guidelines.
Seifert, M., & Somasundaram, J. (2025). COVID-19 death toll predictions show that triggering counterfactual thinking deteriorates judgmental performance. Communications Medicine, 5(2), 104-112. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00751-8
Bertolotti, M., & Catellani, P. (2023). Counterfactual thinking as a prebunking strategy to contrast misinformation on COVID-19. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 104(1), 104404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2022.104404
Anwar, A., Malik, M., Raees, V., & Anwar, A. (2020). The Role of Mass Media in the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analytical Review. PubMed. Retrieved February 4, 2025, from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&dopt=Abstract&list_uids=33072461