To leverage these data for scientific insights, the research team analyzed an aggregated sample of data. Among randomly sampled accounts belonging to people who vaped, the researchers found that 27% reported making an attempt to quit during the study period. Of all first quit attempts, 26% were successful. Among those with a failed first attempt, 13% went on to make an additional quit attempt, with a 36% success rate. On average, people made their first quit attempt 531 days after their earliest vaping post. If that attempt failed, a second attempt typically came 361 days later.

"These findings give us a lens into the vaping cessation journey that has been difficult to obtain through traditional research methods," added Ayers. "By tapping into the real words and experiences of people who vape, this approach can guide more timely and effective public health interventions."

Building the next digital cohort

The vaping study, funded by the University of California’s Tobacco-Related Disease Research Program and Burroughs Wellcome Fund, represents just the first application of this digital cohort approach. The research team plans to rapidly expand by creating digital cohorts around other critical health issues in collaboration with decision makers. 

"Given recent declines in life expectancy and general worsening of our population’s health, now is a critical time to increase the amount and timeliness of data guiding public health decision-making," added Smith. "Our digital cohort method can help make medicine and public health more data-driven, responsive and, hopefully, more effective."

The power of digital cohorts lies in their ability to rapidly study any health topic discussed on social media platforms. "Digital cohorts can be applied to many diseases, conditions, behaviors or outcomes, if they are mentioned publicly online," said Michael Hogarth, M.D., study co-author, professor in the Division of Biomedical Informatics and co-director of the Altman Clinical and Translational Research Institute at UC San Diego. “In the process, we are able to reflect patients’ lived experience.”

The team emphasized the democratizing potential of this approach. "Our current healthcare research priorities have been tied to legacy data collection processes that can take months, and sometimes years, to complete,” concluded Mark Dredze, Ph.D., the John C Malone Professor of Computer Science at Johns Hopkins University and study co-author. “Our approach presents an alternative in which scientists can apply proven epidemiological methods in this new digital realm. This allows us to rapidly identify and characterize emerging health issues in a data-informed manner."

In addition to Ayers, Smith, Dredze and Hogarth, authors of the American Journal of Preventive Medicine paper, “A Digital Cohort Approach for Social Media Monitoring: A Cohort Study of People Who Vape E-Cigarettes” (AJPM doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2024.01.016), include Adam Poliak, Ph.D., an assistant professor of computer science at Bryn Mawr College; Nikolas R. Beros, a student research intern at UC San Diego’s Qualcomm Institute; and Michael Paul, Ph.D., a consultant for the UC San Diego’s Qualcomm Institute.