Reevaluating Predictors of Short-Term Weight Loss: Beyond Genetic Risk

A Kanagawa University of Human Services study found that, in an 8–12‑week low‑carbohydrate diet plus resistance‑training program, genetic obesity risk scores did not predict short‑term BMI reduction—whereas intervention-derived efficiency scores did.

The Kanagawa University of Human Services-led study enrolled participants in a controlled 8–12‑week program combining a low‑carbohydrate diet with structured resistance training and used short‑term BMI reduction as the primary endpoint. The investigators directly compared polygenic risk metrics with efficiency scores derived from metabolic and response measures recorded during the intervention.

Genetic obesity risk scores did not correlate with BMI change over the short 8–12‑week window, suggesting limited utility for genetic‑only prognostication in rapid diet‑driven weight change scenarios.

By contrast, efficiency scores—calculated from on‑treatment metabolic and response data—better stratified responders and more accurately predicted BMI reduction than genetic scores. Because these metrics capture real‑time behavioral and physiological response in the combined low‑carbohydrate diet plus resistance‑training setting, they offer actionable short‑term prognostic information for clinicians monitoring early response to therapy.