Global Progress on Under-5 Mortality Remains Uneven

Key Takeaways:

• A modelling report projects that global progress toward SDG 3.2 may reach the target after 2030, with estimated attainment around 2035.
• Country-level projections indicate that while many countries have met or are on track to meet the target, a substantial group is projected to miss it, with some timelines extending beyond 2050.
• The remaining burden is concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia, with projections shaped by trend-based assumptions and data-quality limitations.

A modelling analysis reports that the global trajectory is projected to miss the 2030 deadline for the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2 under-5 mortality target, with attainment estimated around 2035. In this context, SDG 3.2 is described as a country-level goal for all nations to reduce under-5 mortality to fewer than 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. The analysis emphasizes uneven progress, with substantial variation in projected timelines across countries and regions.

Over the period described, global under-5 deaths were reported to have declined from nearly 13 million in 1990 to 4.78 million in 2023, alongside an average annual reduction in mortality rates of 3.18%. Despite this progress, the 2023 global under-5 mortality rate was reported as 36.72 deaths per 1,000 live births. Based on trend extrapolation, the analysis projects that the SDG 3.2 threshold would be reached globally around 2035, representing a delay relative to the 2030 target. These projections reflect modeled trends rather than definitive forecasts.

At the country level, the report describes wide variation in projected attainment timelines. Based on model estimates, 133 countries are reported to have already met the SDG 3.2 target, with 9 additional countries projected to meet it by 2030, while 58 countries are projected to miss the deadline. Among those projected to miss, 25 countries are estimated not to reach the target until after 2050. These projections highlight substantial heterogeneity in progress across countries.

The analysis also highlights the geographic concentration of remaining burden, reporting that more than four-fifths of global under-5 deaths occur in Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the under-5 mortality rate is reported as 68.82 deaths per 1,000 live births, with the region projected to reach the SDG threshold around 2055. These regional estimates are presented to underscore disparities in both mortality burden and projected timelines.

Methodologically, the study used UN data on under-five deaths and mortality rates from 1990 to 2023 across 200 countries and territories, estimating historical rates of change and projecting future attainment by extrapolating recent trends for locations above the threshold. Reported limitations include the assumption that recent trends will continue and variable data quality in some conflict-affected and low-income settings. The summary also notes that the authors emphasize the importance of scaling up established child-survival interventions—such as skilled birth attendance, postnatal care, vaccination, improved nutrition, and treatment of common childhood illnesses—particularly in high-burden regions.