Early-Onset Type 2 Diabetes Rises in England

Key Takeaways

• In England, type 2 diabetes diagnosis rates were reported as rising in adults younger than 40 while falling in older adults from 2011–2024.
• Women younger than 40 were described as driving the rise, with particularly noticeable increases in white, Asian, and Black women ages 20–29 and in white women ages 30–39.
• BMI at diagnosis rose more quickly in younger adults than in older adults, with the increase reported as approximately double over time, and younger white women had average BMI at diagnosis approaching 40 kg/m².

From 2011 to 2024, type 2 diabetes diagnosis rates in England rose in adults younger than 40 even as they fell in older adults, with women younger than 40 emerging as the subgroup driving the increase.

In a population-based analysis of type 2 diabetes incidence and BMI at diagnosis, researchers at Imperial College London analyzed English National Diabetes Audit data and calculated age-standardized incidence rates by age, sex, and ethnicity from 2011 to 2024. The analysis was the first to examine new type 2 diabetes diagnoses across the entire English population while stratifying results by those demographic groups.

The study also found that BMI at diagnosis was rising more sharply in younger adults than in older adults. According to the authors, that pattern may indicate that successive generations are developing type 2 diabetes alongside increasingly severe obesity. The BMI trend paralleled the same age-related shift seen in diagnosis patterns.

The analysis did not examine weight trends in the general population, and the reasons smaller BMI increases were seen in older adults remained unclear. The authors also emphasized that population summaries can miss important differences when age, sex, and ethnicity are not examined separately.

Clinician Questions

How did type 2 diabetes incidence in England change in adults younger than 40 versus older adults from 2011 to 2024?

The population-based English National Diabetes Audit analysis reported diagnosis rates rising in adults younger than 40 while declining in older adults from 2011 to 2024, with rates age-standardized and stratified by age, sex, and ethnicity.

Which groups of women showed the clearest rise in early-onset type 2 diabetes in England?

The researchers described women younger than 40 as driving the increase, with particularly noticeable rises in white, Asian, and Black women ages 20–29 and in white women ages 30–39, showing that the pattern was not confined to ethnic minority populations.

How did BMI at diagnosis change in younger adults with type 2 diabetes in England?

The analysis reported that BMI at diagnosis was rising more rapidly in younger adults than in older adults, with the increase over time in younger people approximately double that seen in older adults; younger white women had average BMI values approaching 40 kg/m² at diagnosis.