Advancing Diabetes Risk Prediction through the CRP-Triglyceride Glucose Index

Cumulative exposure to the c-reactive protein-triglyceride glucose index (CTI) predicts higher incident diabetes risk in middle-aged and older adults, suggesting a readily obtainable biomarker for earlier detection in primary care and endocrinology.

Compared with conventional cardiometabolic risk factors, the CTI blends inflammatory and metabolic signals. The evidence comes from a national longitudinal cohort of middle-aged and older adults, which supports temporally ordered exposure-outcome assessment and strengthens the prognostic interpretation of cumulative biomarker exposure.

The prospective cohort enrolled 3,742 participants with repeated biomarker assessments and five years of follow-up for incident diabetes. Each 1-unit higher cumulative CTI was associated with a 16% higher risk of diabetes (HR ≈1.16); participants with persistently high CTI had about a 1.25-fold higher risk versus those with low exposure.

The CTI is computed from standard laboratory components—C-reactive protein, fasting triglycerides, and glucose—and therefore requires no novel assays. Longitudinal tracking may be most informative for patients with metabolic syndrome or persistently elevated inflammatory markers.